Apple’s first Mac with its own ARM processor will be the 13.3-inch MacBook Pro, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo (via iMore). He believes that production of that model will start in Q4 of 2020, with an A-series powered MacBook Air arriving shortly afterward either in Q4 2020 or early 2021.
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Apple will also release 14- and 16-inch versions of the MacBook Pro with its own silicon that will enter production in Q2 or Q3 of 2021.
Apple already said that it would ship its first ARM-powered Macs by the end of 2020, but the big mystery was which model would arrive first. It was logical to expect a more lightly powered, lower-stakes productivity PC like a 12-inch MacBook or MacBook Air. With a MacBook Pro, however, folks will reasonably expect to do heavier chores like photo and video editing.
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According to Kuo, the new chips could reduce the cost of Macs and allow Apple to sell them at a lower price. Under that scenario, he predicted Apple could ship 18 to 20 million Macs in 2021, compared to 14.5 to15.5-million units in 2019. Of course, all of this assumes that Kuo is accurate with his predictions and while he often is, he’s not infallible either.